DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/12 10:56

DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/12 10:56 Soybean, Wheat Futures Lower at Midday; Corn Higher Corn futures are a penny to three cents higher at midday Wednesday; soybean futures are flat to 6 cents lower; wheat futures are 12 to 20 cents lower. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: Corn futures are a penny to three cents higher at midday Wednesday; soybean futures are flat to 6 cents lower; wheat futures are 12 to 20 cents lower. The U.S. stock market is firmer at midday with the S&P 60 points higher. The U.S. Dollar Index is 90 lower. The interest rate products are firmer. Energy trade has crude narrowly mixed and natural gas .1 lower. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals are higher with gold up 20.00. CORN: Corn futures are a penny higher on new crop and 3 cents higher on nearby July at midday which has us pushing back toward nearby resistance on the chart. We are near the daily higher in pre-report action with the report due out shortly. On the report at 11 a.m. CDT, trade is looking for old-crop corn carryout at 2.005 billion bushels (bb), down just slightly from last month, and new at 2.085 bb with slight declines in world numbers. Ethanol margins should remain stable with the weekly report expected to show steady production and stocks. Warmer weather continues to be seen in the short-term forecast to boost early growth with rains confined to the north and west. Basis action should continue to remain mostly sideways to firmer with the spread strength. On the July chart, the 20-day moving average at $4.54 is resistance, which we are just below, with the Lower Bollinger Band as support at $4.37, which we bounced from last week. Expect the market to focus on weather after any reaction to the USDA numbers. SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are flat to 6 cents lower with spread action still firming while oil leads the product complex ahead of the report. Meal is 2.00 higher and oil is slightly lower. July beans are 30 over November at midday. On the report, trade is looking for old-crop carryout at 348 million bushels (mb) and new crop at 450 mb, both up slightly from last month, with world numbers edging lower on Brazil and Argentina's poor finish. Open weather should help early development and late planting. South America should continue to lead the export market, but we did see another sale of old crop to China of 106,000 mt Wednesday morning, marking the third sale in four sessions. Basis should remain steady in the short term with oil lagging on crush margins again. The July chart resistance is at the 20-day moving average at $12.10 with support at the fresh low at 11.74 1/4. WHEAT: Wheat futures are 12 to 20 cents lower with trade giving back much of the Tuesday gains with euro values sliding back sharply lower and little other fresh news. On the report, trade is looking for all wheat production at 1.885 bb, up slightly from last month with carryout at 778 mb on new crop, up slightly from last month, while world stocks are expected to see a bigger drop on Black Sea area losses. Plains harvest should expand significantly by the end of the week. The dollar strength is easing after the cooler inflation numbers with MATIF action fading back to the recent lows. On the KC July chart resistance is the 20-day moving average at $6.87, with the lower Bollinger Band at $6.37, which we are near at midday. The 100-day moving average is at $6.15, which is the next downside major moving average. This slide and downward momentum could create long liquidation Wednesday afternoon if the USDA does not deliver any friendly data. David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2024 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.