DTN Midday Livestock Comments 03/26 11:57

DTN Midday Livestock Comments 03/26 11:57 Nervousness Drives Cattle Contracts Lower Tuesday The cattle complex is enduring a tough Tuesday as anxiousness sends the market spiraling lower. Live hog futures continue to grind higher. ShayLe Stewart DTN Livestock Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: As an analyst and as a cattle producer myself, I hate days like these in the market. Not simply because prices are sharply lower, but more so because fear and panic spread quickly throughout the marketplace and instead of stopping the chaos and thinking through the matters at hand, cattlemen, news outlets, and traders all seem to lose their minds on lower days like today and personally contribute to the market's downturn. Tuesday's pressure could be stemming from the bird flu that's affecting dairy cattle in Texas and Kansas, even though USDA has publicly announced the flu poses no risk to consumer health and the cattle are recovering within seven to 10 days. Or Tuesday's selloff could be more technically driven as the spot June contract is trading below the market's 40-day moving average, which could have triggered some day-trading pressure. Or it could just be a knee-jerk reaction, because why not? It is Tuesday after all. Regardless of the rhyme or reason, Tuesday's a down day, and the market doesn't care what you or I think, it's going to do whatever it wants to do. May corn is down 1 1/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $1.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 90.29 points. LIVE CATTLE: The live cattle complex is trading lower but thankfully these contracts aren't seeing the same type of down pressure feeders are. Even though Tuesday's trade seems heavy and problematic, I'd like to remind you prices are historically high and we've yet to see any cash cattle trade. If trade can develop for steady or higher money, the week's turmoil may be calmed. April live cattle are down $2.15 at $184.15, June live cattle are down $2.25 at $179.40 and August live cattle are down $2.82 at $177.15. No bids or asking prices are available yet, and it is likely trade will be delayed until Wednesday afternoon or Thursday. Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $0.37 ($311.26) and select down $1.52 ($300.44) with a movement of 76 loads (33.19 loads of choice, 13.74 loads of select, 8.64 loads of trim and 20.02 loads of ground beef). FEEDER CATTLE: The feeder cattle contracts are leading the downward trend in the cattle complex as currently the nearby contracts are anywhere from $3.00 to $5.00 lower. Bluntly said, the market is having a morning meltdown as the Chicken Little effect -- "the sky is falling" -- seems to have the cattle market's full attention. I find Tuesday's reaction to be completely overdone as the market's fundamentals haven't changed an ounce. April feeder cattle are down $4.80 at $245.70, May feeders are down $5.20 at $247.42 and August feeders are down $4.35 at $257.82. LEAN HOGS: The lean hog complex isn't giving a hoot about the HPAI flu affecting the cattle contracts as it continues to slowly grind higher. More than anything, the hog complex hopes to find a fruitful day in Thursday's market as an export sales report and the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report will be shared. April lean hogs are up $1.17 at $86.32, June lean hogs are up $0.65 at $102.32 and July lean hogs are up $0.72 at $104.65. Consumer support was strong in Monday's market, but unfortunately midday pork cutout values are slightly lower. The market could see a change in prices before Tuesday's afternoon report. The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 3/25/2024 is up $0.22 at $83.69, and the actual index for 3/22/2024 is down $0.12 at $83.48. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $81.02, ranging from $75.00 to $83.00 on 3,259 head, and a five-day rolling average of $80.88. Pork cutouts total 148.78 loads with 128.42 loads of pork cuts and 20.36 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.22, $95.52. ShayLe Stewart can be reached at shayle.stewart@dtn.com. (c) Copyright 2024 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.