DTN Midday Grain Comments 02/09 12:00

DTN Midday Grain Comments 02/09 12:00 Corn, Soybeans Lower at Midday; Wheat Higher Corn futures are 2 cents lower at midday Friday; soybean futures are 5-7 cents lower; wheat futures are 2 to 9 cents higher. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: Corn futures are 2 cents lower at midday Friday; soybean futures are 5-7 cents lower; wheat futures are 2 to 9 cents higher. The U.S. stock market is mixed at midday with the S&P 15 points higher. The U.S. Dollar Index is 2 points lower. The interest rate products are flat to lower. Energies have crude up 50 cents and natural gas is .08 lower. Livestock trade is mostly higher with cattle flat to 50 higher, feeders mixed, and hogs 25-100 higher. Precious metals are lower with gold down $9. CORN: Corn futures are 2 cents lower at midday with trade continuing to work the lower end of the range and flirt with new lows. We did see a light, profit-taking bounce that has us 3 cents higher Friday morning, but downside long liquidation is still an issue. On the report Thursday we saw the carryout at 2.172 billion bushels (bb) versus 2.162 bb last month, with Brazil production off by 3 million metric tons (mmt) and Argentina unchanged; world stocks were down 3.1 mmt to 322.1 mmt. Ethanol margins should find support with higher energy prices and lower corn prices, but we need ethanol usage to increase with solid overall production likely to stay firm near term. The Thursday daily export wire saw 200,000 metric tons (mt) sold to Colombia with weekly sales solid again at 1.219 mmt. Basis will likely see some pressure as movement picks up ahead of the March contract going into expiration. Farmers remain in a big long basis position. On the March chart the 20-day moving average at $4.43 3/4 is nearby resistance with the Lower Bollinger Band at $4.32 just above the $4.29 3/4 fresh low as support. SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are 5 to 7 cents lower at midday, meal is mixed and bean oil is off 80 cents on the March contract. The market has priced in some expected better active weather patterns in South America the next several weeks, which has the trend down, and the chart negative, adding to pressure. There was no friendly surprise Thursday on the WASDE report. The 2023-24 carryout rose to 315 million bushels (mb) versus 280 mb last month, with Argentina production unchanged and Brazil production 1.0 mmt lower, with world stocks rising to 116.0 mmt from 114.6 mmt last month. Weekly export sales remained soft at 340,800 mt of beans; 284,400 of meal; and 1,200 of oil. Basis should remain flat in the short term domestically. March soybeans have resistance at the 20-day moving average at $12.11. The $11.78 1/2 fresh low is nearby support with the lower Bollinger Band just above that at $11.78. WHEAT: Wheat futures are 2 to 9 cents higher at midday. Chicago strength is leading the way. Wheat trade is still struggling with spillover weakness from corn and beans, and a lack of a friendly story of its own. On the WASDE report Thursday, carryout rose to 658 mb from 648 mb last month, while world stocks were 259.4 mmt versus 260.0 mmt last month. The carryover is not overly burdensome versus some larger carryover years, so it would seem to have a bigger chance for a weather rally if adverse weather appears. The Plains will see warmer-than-normal temps persist with better moisture possibilities short term. A cold snap in March could be a problem if we keep this warmer-than-normal trend going. On the KC March chart, resistance is at the 20-day moving average at $6.15, which we retreated from after closing higher Thursday. Support is the lower Bollinger Band at $5.92. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com. Follow him on X, formerly Twitter, @davidfiala. (c) Copyright 2024 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.