DTN Midday Grain Comments 01/16 10:53

DTN Midday Grain Comments 01/16 10:53 Corn, Wheat Futures Lower at Midday; Soybeans Mixed Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are narrowly mixed; wheat futures are 7 to 17 cents lower. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are narrowly mixed; wheat futures are 7 to 17 cents lower. The U.S. stock market is mixed at midday with the S&P 5 points lower. The U.S. Dollar Index is 70 points higher. The interest rate products are weaker. Energies have crude off .35 and natural gas off .12. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle leading. Precious metals are weaker with gold 9.00 lower. CORN: Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents lower overnight as we continue to digest the report from Friday after yields rose to 177.3 bushels per acre (bpa) from 174.9 bpa, taking carryout up to 2.162 billion bushels (bb) from 2.131 bb, and stocks were 12.169 bb versus 12.050 bb expected with world stocks rising to 325.2 million metric tons (mmt) from 315.2 mmt last month along with outside market negativity. Ethanol margins will remain under pressure with soft driving demand and logistics issues. South American weather remains mostly favorable for first-crop corn. The daily export wire saw 126,700 metric tons (mt) sold to Mexico. Weekly inspections are expected to be in the 600,000 mt to 750,000 mt range with the release delayed for tech issues. On the March chart, the 20-day moving average at $4.66 is nearby resistance, which we faded from last week, with the lower Bollinger Band at $4.46 1/2 above the $4.41 3/4 fresh low as support. SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are narrowly mixed at midday with trade retracing the post-report selloff before fading during the day session with meal leading the product complex as oversold conditions ease. Meal is 4.00 to 5.00 higher and oil is 20 to 30 points lower. On the report, yield rose .7 bpa to 50.6 bpa with carryout at 280 mb versus 245 mb last month, and stocks at 3.0 bb versus 2.975 bb expected, with world stocks at 114.6 mmt from 114.2 mmt last month with Brazil production 4 mmt, and Argentina up 2 mmt. Weekly export inspections are expected to be in the 650,000 mt to 800,000 mt range. Basis is expected to remain flat on the recent trend to start the year. Weather should be a nonissue in the short term for South America. The March soybean chart has resistance at the recent gap at $12.92. The $12.03 fresh low is nearby support with the lower Bollinger Band below the market at $12.16. WHEAT: Wheat futures are 7 to 17 cents lower at midday with the stronger dollar helping selling to return as early row-crop gains faded to add negative spillover. On the report, carryout was 648 mb versus 659 mb expected with stocks at 1.410 bb versus 1.387 bb expected with world stocks at 260 mmt from 258.2 mmt last month. Winter wheat acres were 34.425 million versus 35.786 million expected, off 2.3 million from last year. The Plains should maintain snow cover until warmer temps return next week. Matif wheat has made fresh lows as well. Weekly export inspections are expected to be in the 200,000 mt to 350,000 mt range. On the KC March chart, resistance is at the 20-day moving average at $6.28. Support is at the lower Bollinger Band at $6.10, which we are below at midday with the fall low at $5.95 below that. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com. Follow him on X, formerly Twitter, @davidfiala. (c) Copyright 2024 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.