DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/09 11:11

DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/09 11:11 Trade in All Grains Lower on Trade Talk Disappointment Corn is 9 cents to 11 cents lower; soybeans are 18 cents to 19 cents lower and wheat is 4 cents to 10 cents lower. Outside markets are mostly bearish except for the dollar. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are weaker with the Dow 420 points lower. The interest rate products are weaker. The dollar index is 28 lower. Energies are weaker with crude down 70 cents. Livestock trade is weaker with hogs nearly down the limit. Precious metals are mixed with gold up $4.60. CORN Corn trade is 9 cents to 11 cents lower at midday with trade under pressure on thoughts of near-term drier weather and trade concerns. Drier weather should be the rule for the next seven days with below normal temperatures expected for most. Ethanol margins are stable with softer corn and energies. Basis will be choppy with river disruptions and mixed demand, along with slow movement by farmers. The USDA monthly report is expected to show the large carryovers on Friday, including the new balance sheet for 2019-20; the average guess is 2.061 billion bushels (bb) for old-crop, and 2.142 bb for new-crop. Weekly Export Sales were disappointing at 287,600 metric tons (mt) of old crop, and 6,900 mt of new. Colombia bought 107,000 mt of corn on the daily wire. On the July nearby chart support is the recent low at $3.52 with trade fading back below the 10-day and 20-day moving average at $3.64, with the 50-day at $3.73 1/2. SOYBEANS: Soybean trade is 17 cents to 19 cents lower at midday with a lack of trade progress and export business still weighing on the market with trade scoring the lowest levels since December 2008. Meal is $3.50 to $4.50 lower and oil is 40 cents to 50 cents lower. Crush margins should still be bullish in the near term, but remain well off the recent highs. South American currencies remain cheap at the end of harvest, but basis is starting to firm. Fieldwork should generally remain slow in the near term but more progress is likely into next week. Trade talks are still scheduled for Thursday and Friday, with bullish trade optimism seemingly fading again. The Supply and Demand report on Friday will restate the large carryovers yet again with the average guess on old-crop 925 million bushels (mb), and new-crop 943 mb. CONAB lower Brazilian export expectations by 2 million metric tons (mmt) as well. Weekly export sales were poor at 149,100 mt of old-crop, 295,600 mt of new-crop, 150,800 mt of old meal, 45,700 mt of new meal, and 16,400 mt of oil. The USDA announced 397,600 mt of soybeans sold to unknown. The July chart support is the fresh low at $8.06 1/2, with resistance the 10-day moving average at $8.43. WHEAT: Wheat trade is 5 cents to 9 cents lower with trade following the lead of the row crops, with overall the best action of the grains Thursday. Europe and the Black Sea area will be watched more as their growing season keeps moving with mixed to good conditions so far and spring wheat seeding on going at a good clip, and Russian domestic prices fading again. The U.S. High Plains will be drier in the near term with cooler weather inbound, raising some freeze concerns. The dollar has drifted back to the lower end of the range. The WASDE report is expected to show old-crop carryout at 1.1 bb, and new-crop at 1.073 bb. Weekly export sales were mixed at 90,600 mt of old, and 412,300 mt of new. On the July Kansas City chart support the fresh lows at $3.90 1/2, with the lower Bollinger band at $3.87, and resistance the 10-day at $4.01 3/8, which we closed just above, with the 20-day the next round up at $4.13 1/8. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.