DTN Midday Grain Comments 02/06 11:35

DTN Midday Grain Comments 02/06 11:35 Grains Mixed at Midday Wheat has emerged as the midday leader in quiet trade. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are flat with the Dow 3 points lower. The interest rate products are weaker. The dollar index is 20 points higher. Energies are firmer with crude up $0.40. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals are mixed with gold down $3.40. CORN Corn trade is flat to a penny lower at midday with the rangebound action continuing with trade looking to see if we can finish the day strong again. The trade is focused on USDA numbers coming on Friday and no major changes in South American Weather into the near term with the beginning of the double crop season approaching. On Friday, trade is looking for corn stocks of 12.09 billion bushels, 450 million lower than last year, with yield at 177.9 BPA for production of 14.532. Domestic carryout is expected to be at 1.708 billion bushels, and world at 307.6 million metric tons. Ethanol production was down 45,000 barrels per day, with the lowest weekly run since October 2016, with stocks down 33,000 barrels, with futures edging lower. Basis has remained flat to weaker with improved movement and more open weather. On the March chart, support is at the $3.78 100-day moving average, then the $3.73 lower Bollinger Band. Resistance is at the nearby trendline resistance at $3.82, the $3.87 200-day moving average. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 1 to 2 cents higher with trade still struggling to hold the upper end of the range. Meal is flat to $1 lower and oil is 30 to 40 points higher. More sales to China were confirmed with 586,000 metric tons to China, and 182,000 to unknown. South America weather looks to continue to drift towards improvement in Brazil and Argentina with harvest continuing to move in Brazil. Crush margins remain strong overall, with softer basis as improving weather allows for movement along with the futures hanging in the upper end of the recent range. Report expectations are for 3.743 billion bushels in stocks, vs. 3.161 last year, with yields at 51.8 BPA and production of 4.569 billion. Domestic carryout is expected to be at 926 million bushels, and world stocks at 112.67 million metric tons. On the March chart resistance is at the $9.31 high printed Friday, then the $9.41 area where we find the seven-month high. Support is at the $9.14 20-day then the $8.96 100-day moving average. WHEAT Wheat trade is mixed at midday as well with wheat trade working to extend the recent breakout higher along with spreads holding the recent gains. The stronger dollar is limiting strength as well. Southern Hemisphere harvest will continue in the near term. North American winter wheat areas have snow cover, which is why the extreme cold did not boost trade with colder air working back this week. Russian values continue to work higher as well for the export market. On the report, stocks are expected to be 1.957 billion bushels, with winter wheat acres at 32.158 million, down about 400,000 from last year. Domestic carryout is expected to be 989 million bushels, and world stocks at 268.09 million metric tons. On the March Kansas City chart, support is the 50-day at $5.05, with resistance the upper Bollinger Band at $5.16. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.