DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/24 11:39

DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/24 11:39 Corn, Wheat Lower at Midday Soybeans are the midday leader, with wheat and corn firming from overnight weakness. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow futures up 120. The interest rate products are mixed. The dollar index is 11 points lower. Energies are mostly firmer with crude up $0.90. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are firmer with gold up $1.00. CORN Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents lower at midday with trade pulling back from the early week strength after condition reports came in better than expected with nickel lower trade early on. Cooler weather looks to hang around the next couple weeks with mixed moisture potential with a growing focus on early August weather with the advanced state of the crop, especially in the southern growing areas. Ethanol board margins remain positive with the energy complex boosting blender margins to open the week with ethanol futures edging slightly lower to open the week with summer driving season hitting the home stretch. Corn basis has been flat to firmer for the most part. The weekly crop progress showed conditions unchanged at 72% good to excellent, and 9% poor to very poor, with silking at 81% vs. 63% on average, and 18% in the dough, vs. 8% on average. On the September chart futures are above the 20-day at $3.51, the next level of resistance would be the upper Bollinger band at 3.64. Support is the 20-day now, with the 10-day at 3.48 below that. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 7 to 11 cents higher at midday with trade firming back from the overnight lows after more details about a trade aid package to farmers leaked out. Meal is $0.50 to $1.50 higher and oil is 20 to 30 points higher. Brazil remains at a stout premium to US origin, still running $2.00 or better for fall, which mostly offsets the tariffs coming forward. Bean basis has remained steady with processors taking the lead with crush margins remaining exceptionally strong. Weather should not be a major driver near term for soybeans due to limited stressful forecasts but with pod fill starting beans could be more active based upon any forecast changes with early August trending drier on some forecasts. The weekly crop progress showed slight improvement to 70% good to excellent, and 8% poor to very poor, with 78% blooming vs. 63% on average, and 44% setting pods, vs. 21% on average. On the September chart the 10-day at $8.44 is again the first level of support with the lower Bollinger Band at 8.24 below that with the next level resistance the 20-day at 8.55, which we are well above at midday, and the upper Bollinger band at $8.86 the next round of resistance. WHEAT Wheat trade is flat to 4 cents lower at midday with light two sided trade seen after the initial weaker trade overnight with spillover from the row crops. Spring wheat progress will slow a bit in North America with the cooler weather with winter wheat harvest nearing completion. Russian harvest continues to move along as well with yields remaining below last year's levels as they get into spring wheat harvest; although they have improved a little more as harvest expands. Western Europe continues to see excessive heat as harvest moves forward there with relief not offered until August. HRW basis has started to waver a bot on the plains as harvest wraps up. Weekly crop progress showed winter wheat 80% harvested, 1% ahead of average, 79% good to excellent, 4% poor to very poor with 96% headed vs. 85% on average. On the September Kansas City is back above the 20-day at $4.90 and the 10-day at $4.93 with the 200-day at 5.11 the next level of resistance, which we failed to hold on Monday and this morning, with the next round of resistance at the 50-day at 5.23. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.