DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/02 11:13

DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/02 11:13 All Grains Lower at Midday Trade opens July with broadly lower action. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are weaker with the Dow down 90. The interest rate products are flat to higher. The dollar index is 50 points higher. Energies are weaker with crude down 0.50. Livestock trade is mixed with feeder cattle leading. Precious metals are weaker with gold down 7.10. CORN Corn trade is 8 to 10 cents lower with heavy selling returning after mixed overnight action with sellers leaning on broad weakness and no immediate weather issues. Harvest should continue to move along in the double-crop areas of Brazil with open weather continuing, while Black Sea-area corn remains mostly dry into July. U.S. weather will trend warmer in the near term with mixed rain forecasts and some extreme near-term heat potential with parts of the corn belt badly needing to dry out. Ethanol margins remain exceptionally strong, which should boost corn usage into the second half of summer with ethanol futures off 2 cents this morning. Basis has been flat to firmer in recent days with the lower board. Quarterly grain stocks and acres has corn acreage at 89.13 million acres, vs. the average guess of 88.37 million and 88.03 in March. Stocks were 5.306 billion bushels, vs 5.263 expected, and 5.229 last year. Weekly export inspections remained strong at 1.537 million metric tons. Weekly crop progress is expected to show steady to lower conditions, and maturity still a tick above normal. On the September chart we remain below the 10-day, at $3.61 1/2 which is now nearby resistance, and then the 20-day at $3.71. Nearby support is the $3.48 lower Bollinger Band then the $3.46 spike low from last week. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 6 to 9 cents lower with trade seeing back and forth action with trade well off the lows and highs at midday. Meal is 1.00 to 2.00 lower and oil is 20 to 30 points lower. The stocks and acres report showed acres at 89.56 million acres vs. 89.79 expected, and 88.98 in March. Stocks were 1.222 billion bushels vs. 1.218 expected and 966 million last year. Trade concerns will continue to fuel volatility with plenty of talk on all sides, and Brazil building a buck and a quarter premium to U.S. origin. Bean basis has remained steady to firmer with processors taking the lead. Widespread rains should boost near-term growth with the heat to follow, and the main reproductive season still a ways out. Weekly export inspections were good at 849,204 metric tons. Weekly crop progress is expected to show steady to slightly conditions and maturity remaining well ahead of normal. On the August chart support is at lower Bollinger Band at 8.26, and resistance the 10-day at $8.79. WHEAT Wheat trade is 4 to 16 cents lower at midday with trade giving back the overnight gains and then some with the broad weakness overcoming concerns about European production. Harvest progress for Kansas should pick up this week with the warmer and drier weather for western Kansas, and some quality concerns from recent rain as well as hail losses. Spring wheat should see good progress with Canada remaining drier. Australia should see some improvement again. Russia remains dry in the winter wheat growing areas with early harvest yields down solidly from last year, along with yield concerns in continental Europe. HRW basis has remains solid ahead of the anticipated harvest protein improvement and board weakness. Stocks were 1.1 billion bushels vs. 1.098 expected and 1.181 last year. Weekly export inspections were a bit soft at 324,181 metric tons. Weekly crop progress is expected to show harvest passed halfway for winter wheat, and spring wheat conditions steady with maturity ahead of normal. On the September chart, Kansas City is back below the 10-day at $4.94 that it jumped above overnight with the 20-day at $5.20 above that, and $4.71 1/4 remaining support as the fresh low. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.