DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/28 11:25

DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/28 11:25 Corn, Wheat Lower at Midday Trade grinds flat to lower across the board at midday. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow up 55. The interest rate products are firmer. The dollar index is 7 points lower. Energies are firmer with crude up 1.02. Livestock trade is firmer. Precious metals are weaker with gold down 4.10. CORN Corn trade is flat to 2 cents lower with quiet trade at midday with grinding range continuing going into the report. Harvest should continue to expand in the double-crop areas of Brazil with open weather continuing, while Black Sea area corn remains mostly dry into July. U.S. weather will trend warmer in the near term with mixed rain forecasts and extreme near-term heat. Ethanol margins remain exceptionally strong which should boost corn usage in the near term with ethanol and unleaded slightly lower this morning. Basis has been flat to firmer in recent days with the lower board. On the report on Friday, the average acre guess is for 88.372 million acres up from 88.026 in March, and stocks at 5.268 billion bushels. Weekly export sales were decent with 849,900 metric tons of old-crop corn, and 636,800 of new. On the September chart we remain below the 10-day, at $3.64 which is now nearby resistance, and we tested overnight and then the 200-day at $3.88. Nearby support is the $3.50 lower Bollinger Band then the $3.46 spike low from last week. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 1 to 2 cents higher with trade coming off the morning lows. Meal is $1 to $2 higher and oil 10 to 20 points higher. Trade concerns will continue to fuel volatility with plenty of talk on all sides, and Brazil building a substantial premium to US origin with some Chinese purchases being redirected to Bangladesh and Iran. Bean basis has remained steady to firmer, with trade likely to remain quiet in the near term as old crop exports remain slow with Brazilian values remaining strong on the anticipation of future business. Widespread rains should boost near term growth with the heat to follow, and the main reproductive season still a ways out. Weekly export sales were decent at 358,500 metric tons of old crop, 636,800 of new, 146,300 of old meal, 75,500 of new, and 30,500 of old-crop oil. The average acre guess is 89.79 million acres up from 88.92 in March with stocks at 1.225 billion bushels. On the August chart support is at lower Bollinger Band at 8.33, and resistance the 10-day at $8.89. WHEAT Wheat trade is 2 to 4 cents lower with trade failing to build on the winter wheat gains yesterday so far. Harvest progress for Kansas should pick up this week with the warmer and drier weather returning for the second half of the week and mixed yield, and some quality concerns from recent rain. Spring wheat should see good progress with Canada remaining drier. Australia should see some improvement but overall remains mixed. Russia remains dry in the winter wheat growing areas. HRW basis has remains solid ahead of the anticipated harvest protein improvement and board weakness. Weekly export sales improved at 563,700 metric tons. All wheat acres have expected to be 47.122, down from 47.339 in March, with the losses on spring wheat acres, and stocks expected to be at 1.091 billion bushels. On the September Kansas City is back below all the major moving averages with the 10-day at $4.99 the closest to the market, and $4.72 1/4 becoming support as the fresh low. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.