DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/09 11:21

DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/09 11:21 Wheat, Soybeans Lower at Midday; Corn Flat Wheat and soybeans are weaker at midday, while corn is near flat. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are mixed. The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 5 points lower. Energies are firmer with crude up $2.00. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are mixed with gold up $0.80. CORN Corn trade is flat to a penny lower in quiet midday trade with trade drifting along as we draw closer to Thursday's WASDE report. Rains will slow planting through the middle of the Corn Belt in spots later this week, but the warmer temps should boost progress of the large amount of corn planted up until then, along with the quick pace in front of the rain. The second-crop areas of Brazil should catch some showers to mitigate some stress, but the crop size should trend lower. The weekly ethanol production report showed production up 8,000 barrels per day and stocks down 178,000 barrels per day, and futures have edged slightly lower post report. On Thursday, we will see the USDA monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) at 11 a.m. CDT. The average trade guess for the old crop, 2017-18, carryout is expected to come in at 2.178 billion bushels, and new crop at 1.628 billion. The new-crop range is 1.49 bb to 1.91 bb, so the trade will be ready to react to the number. On the July chart, we are above the 20-day at $3.97, which remains support, with resistance the fresh high at $4.08 1/4 scored last week. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 4 to 7 cents lower at midday with trade testing the low end of the range in pre-report action. Meal is $1 to $2 lower, and oil is 20 to 30 points higher. The recent pattern in South America should remain intact near term, allowing for greater progress in Brazil harvesting, with the stronger dollar and cheaper real encouraging sales and export business, along with the weaker Argentina peso as they push interest rates to 40%. On the WASDE report, old-crop carryout is expected to be 541 million bushels on old crop and 549 mb on new. On the July chart, trade is just below the 200-day at $10.16 with the next level of support the psychological support at $10.00. The 100-day at $10.27 is resistance. WHEAT Wheat trade is 6 to 11 cents lower at midday with the trade drifting lower with little fresh news in the U.S. and better weather expected for the Black Sea areas. The dollar rally will likely continue to limit upside, with the index just below 93 on some mild weakness today. Warmer weather should help to boost maturity with the crop still well behind normal. Further stress is likely if not combined with rain, especially for the western edge of the Plains, with shower potential focused on the more northern winter wheat growing areas. Spring wheat growing areas look more open as they catch up further. The Black Sea area will continue to dominate export trade with spring weather not triggering any major excitement thus far. A warm, dry start but a wetter nearby is forecast. Black Sea values are moving back toward $202 a ton. On the report, old-crop carryout is expected to be at 1.065 bb of old crop and 930 mb of new. On the July KC contract, support is the 20-day at $5.27 support, which we are testing at midday. Resistance is the $5.43 area of the 10-day moving average. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.