By Chris Clayton
DTN Ag Policy Editor
and
Emily Unglesbee
DTN Staff Reporter
WASHINGTON (DTN) -- USDA again lowered projected soybean exports, this time by 60 million bushels, for the 2017-18 crop but also boosted corn exports by 125 million bushel as well.
Looking at South American competition, USDA also increased the projected Brazilian soybean production by 2 million metric tons but also lowered Argentine soybean production by 2 million metric tons as well.
The new numbers come from USDA's monthly February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates on Thursday.
Thursday's new U.S. ending stocks estimates were bullish for corn, but bearish for soybeans and wheat, said DTN Analyst Todd Hultman. The new world ending stocks estimates from USDA were bullish for corn and neutral for soybeans, and wheat, he said.
For DTN's exclusive audio comments on today's reports, visit: http://listen.aghost.net/…
Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…
SOYBEANS
U.S. soybean exports were lowered for the second straight month, which has boosted projected 2017-18 soybean ending stocks by 60 million bushels to 530 million bushels.
The rationale for lower soybean exports was due to lower shipments and sales through January as well as increased export competition from those larger supplies in Brazil. Production for Brazil was increased to 112 million metric tons.
Argentine soybean production was dropped 2 million metric tons to 54 million metric tons due to lower harvested area and reduced yield from unseasonable heat and dryness.
The range of projected farm-gate prices for soybeans was tightened to $8.90-$9.70 with an average expected price of $9.30 a bushel.
CORN
Projected U.S. corn ending stocks were lowered to 2.352 billion bushels, down 125 million bushels due directly to the projected bump in exports.
Exports were raised based on increased U.S. price competitiveness because of the weaker dollar and reduced export projections for Argentina and Ukraine.
Argentine corn production was lowered 2.8 million metric tons to 39 million metric tons because of the heat and dryness in January and early February. Brazil's projected corn production held pat at 95 million metric tons.
The farm-gate also saw the range narrowed but was bumped up 5 cents a bushel at the mid-point to $3.30 a bushel.
WHEAT
Stocks for the 2017-18 crop were bumped up 20 million bushels to 1.009 billion bushels. Exports were lowered by 25 million bushels but USDA bumped up domestic food use for wheat by 5 million bushels.
U.S. exports were lowered because of higher expected exports from Argentina, Russia and Canada.
The price spread for farmers shifted slightly lower, but the mid-point remains at $4.60 per bushel.
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Editor's Note: Join DTN Senior Analyst Darin Newsom at 12 p.m. CST Thursday as he looks at crop production in South America and USDA's latest WASDE estimates. To register, visit http://bit.ly/…
| WORLD PRODUCTION (Million Metric Tons) 2017-2018 |
| Feb. | Avg. | High | Low | Jan. | 2016-17 |
| Corn |
| Brazil corn | 95.0 | 93.5 | 95.0 | 87.1 | 95.0 | 98.5 |
| Argentina corn | 39.0 | 40.5 | 42.0 | 39.0 | 42.0 | 41.0 |
| Soybeans |
| Brazil soybeans | 112.0 | 111.4 | 113.0 | 110.0 | 110.0 | 114.1 |
| Argentina soybeans | 54.0 | 53.8 | 56.0 | 51.0 | 56.0 | 57.8 |
| | 2017-18 | | 2016-17 |
| Wheat | | Feb. | Jan. | | Feb. | Jan. |
| European Union | 151.60 | 151.60 | | 145.25 | 145.25 |
| FSU - 12 | 142.15 | 141.27 | | 130.47 | 130.48 |
| WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2017-2018 |
| Feb. | Avg | High | Low | Jan. | 2016-17 |
| Corn | 203.1 | 204.3 | 208.0 | 198.9 | 206.6 | 228.8 |
| Soybeans | 98.1 | 98.6 | 100.5 | 97.0 | 98.6 | 96.5 |
| Wheat | 266.1 | 267.8 | 269.7 | 265.0 | 268.0 | 252.7 |
| U.S. ENDING STOCKS (million bushels) 2017-2018 |
| Feb. | Avg | High | Low | Jan. | 2016-17 |
| Corn | 2,352 | 2,467 | 2,550 | 2,377 | 2,477 | 2,293 |
| Soybeans | 530 | 492 | 540 | 455 | 470 | 302 |
| Sorghum | 24 | 23 | 26 | 20 | 24 | 33 |
| Wheat | 1,009 | 993 | 1,014 | 974 | 989 | 1,181 |
(AG)
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