DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/16 11:16

DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/16 11:16 Midday Grains Lower, Outside Markets Firm Grain trade is lower at midday and outside markets are firm with crude up $2.50. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock markets are higher with the Dow up 60. The interest rate products are mixed. The dollar index is 30 points lower. Energies are higher with crude up $2.50. Livestock trade is lower to sharply lower. Precious metals are higher with gold up $19. CORN: Corn trade is around a nickel lower at midday and at the daily lows. Corn hit the 200-day and highest major moving average on December 2016 this week and the upside momentum stalled. Outside markets are supportive. The corn export sales pace has been behind last year and ethanol margins have been compressed by the recent rally in corn, giving the trade thoughts that demand is not supporting further upside following the 35-cent rally in just over a week. The FSA prevented planting acres were at 2.35 vs. 2.3 million in August, which was too small of a difference to push prices higher Wednesday morning. On the nearby December chart, we are back below the 100-day moving average at $3.90 midday, so support is the 20-day at $3.76. Resistance is at the $3.95 high printed Monday night then the 200-day at $4.01. SOYBEANS: Soybean trade is a penny lower at midday after trading around a nickel higher following the FSA data. Meal is down $1.50 and bean oil is up 20 points. Crude is supporting bean oil and limiting the downside in beans. The FSA data released Wednesday morning was previous data rather than current, but the current data came out at 10 a.m. CDT. This initially appeared to support beans, but also Tuesday and Wednesday there was some selling of corn and buying of beans with traders unwinding spreads or entering new positions. The FSA prevented planting acres were at 2.22 million vs. 2.17 on the August number. This was slightly supportive, but no major change. The NOPA number was neutral to slightly friendly Tuesday at 135.3 million bushels, which appeared to temper the strength on Tuesday, but is big enough to suggest that the USDA September stocks number may be slightly lower than the 210 million bushel number seen on the WASDE report on Friday. The weekly crop condition ratings were down 2 percentage points at 61% good to excellent Monday. So beans have seen a little friendly news, but nearby November futures have not been able to push to or above $9, illustrating concern surrounding upcoming harvest pressure. On the November chart, the contract low printed Friday at $8.53 1/4 is long-term support, with the 20-day moving average at $8.80 nearby support. The $8.94 1/2 high printed Tuesday and Wednesday morning is nearby resistance, then $9, then the 50-day at $9.33. WHEAT: Wheat trade is 5 to 8 lower at midday with spillover pressure from corn and limited supportive news. Wheat was down overnight with follow-through from Tuesday and the market thinking the Friday into Monday rally lacked fundamental support. The supply and demand trend remains bearish for wheat with the U.S. remaining uncompetitive in the export arena. The winter wheat planting is moving along at a normal rate with much of the Midwest at acceptable moisture levels, which limits upside. On the Kansas City December chart, support is the 20-day moving average at $4.85, with the 10-day at $4.80 below it. The 50-day at $5.15 is resistance above our $4.97 3/4 Tuesday high. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered trading adviser. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2015 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.