DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/14 11:19

DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/14 11:19 All Grains Higher at Midday Trade is higher across the board at midday, led by wheat. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock markets are lower with the Dow down 75. The interest rate products are mostly lower. The dollar index is 9 points lower. Energies are lower with crude down $.80. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are mixed with gold up $2. CORN Corn trade is 4 to 6 cents higher at midday due to follow-through buying after the strong finish on Friday. The USDA corn yield came in at 167.5 bushels per acre versus 168.8 on the August report. The domestic carryover came in at 1.592 billion bushels versus 1.713 on the last report giving the friendly news to the market which is behind our higher trade Friday and today along with chart buying. The global carryover was at 189.7 million metric tons versus 194 expected and 195.1 last month. With both the domestic and global carryovers dropped prices should be supported in the month ahead around the contract lows. The weekly export inspections were decent at 711,187 metric tons, while crop progress expected to run slightly ahead of normal, and conditions near unchanged. On the December chart support is now at the $3.74 20-day, then the $3.72 10-day, resistance was at the 100-day moving average at $3.91 which we have moved above at midday so the 200-day at $4.01 is the next upside chart threshold. FSA acreage data is due out tomorrow which may need to be lower due support corn following our over 30 cent rally off last week's low. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 6 to 10 cents higher at midday with trade following corn and wheat. Meal is $2 to $3 higher, and oil is 20 to 30 points higher. The USDA gave both friendly and negative items on the report with the yield number going up to 47.1 bushels per acre versus 46 expected and 46.9 on the August report. The crop size was at the high side estimate of 3.935 billion bushels and only 34 million away from the record 2015 production. The soybean new crop carryover came in at 450 million bushels versus 470 last month and an average trade guess of 415. The global carryover was at 84.98 million metric tons versus 86.9 last month and 86.5 expected. The weekly export inspections showed some improvement at 370,091 metric tons, and weekly crop progress is expected to show maturity running ahead of normal. November beans reached a new contract low less than two cents below the level reached a month ago. This contract low printed Friday at $8.53 1/4 is chart support with resistance coming into today at the $8.75 10-day then $8.82 20-day which we have moved above but momentum is flat at midday. The $8.89 1/2 3-week high then $9 is chart resistance for this afternoon. The NOPA crush number tomorrow is one bit of news that may need to be friendly to support beans from current levels. WHEAT Wheat trade is 12 to 15 cents higher at midday, with profit taking vs. shorts and the beginning of the winter wheat planting season working to induce a rally. The USDA 2015-16 domestic carryover came in at 875 million bushels versus 860 expected and 850 million last month. The global carryover came in at 226.56 million metric ton which was above the 221.7 expected and 221.5 August number. The supply and demand trend remains bearish for wheat, but wheat is oversold here and some shorts appear to be taking profits this morning. The weekly export inspections were much improved at 647,551 metric tons, with spring wheat harvest near complete, and winter wheat planting around normal. Chart resistance for the December Kansas City contract was at the $4.86 20-day moving average, which we have surged through at midday. This is now minor support with major support at the $4.65 3/4 contract low reached last Friday. The 50-day at $5.20 is the next major moving average to the upside to note for chart resistance. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered trading adviser. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2015 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.